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Australia and Championship Odds

There are some great betting opportunities this weekend. With so many rule changes in F1 this season, the first race of the season is a great chance to catch the bookmakers out.

Here is my guide to a few of the best value bets.

All odds are taken from William Hill

 

Qualifying – Pole Position

Jenson Button 4/1
Felipe Massa 5/1
Kimi Raikkonen 11/2
Fernando Alonso 11/2
Lewis Hamilton 7/1
Rubens Barrichello 7/1
Robert Kubica 8/1
Sebastien Vettel 20/1
Heikki Kovalainen 25/1
Nick Heidfeld 25/1
Timo Glock 25/1
Jarno Trulli 25/1
Nico Rosberg 33/1
Mark Webber 50/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 50/1
Kazuki Nakajima 66/1
Sebastien Bourdais 125/1
Sebastien Buemi 150/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 200/1
Adrian Sutil 200/1

The best value bet there has to be Jarno Trulli. Trulli is one of the best qualifiers in F1 (the best in my own opinion). He also has what looks like a very fast Toyota this season. If they are close to the front running pace, then I am sure Toyota will go aggressive, and go for pole posiition.

I am surprised that the odds on Trulli for pole position are so long.

As a big outside punt Webber is a possible bet at 50-1. We haven’t see much from Red Bull over the last couple of tests, but I am sure it will be a be a very quick car in Melbourne.

Like Trulli, Webber is brilliant at putting a qualifying lap together, and I am sure that he will be well up for it at his home grand prix.

Out of the favourites Kubica isn’t a bad bet at 8-1. BMW haven’t been making the headlines during testing, but it is very well known that they often sandbag in testing and practise.

BMW looked much less competitive at this time last season, but Kubica came from nowhere to challenge for pole position, and almost got it. Same thing could easily happen this season, except with Kubica taking the pole position.

 

Race win

Jenson Button 3/1
Kimi Raikkonen 5/1
Felipe Massa 6/1
Fernando Alonso 6/1
Rubens Barrichello 6/1
Robert Kubica 7/1
Lewis Hamilton 8/1
Nick Heidfeld 25/1
Sebastien Vettel 25/1
Timo Glock 33/1
Jarno Trulli 33/1
Heikki Kovalainen 40/1
Mark Webber 50/1
Nico Rosberg 50/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 80/1
Kazuki Nakajima 100/1
Sebastien Bourdais 150/1
Sebastien Buemi 200/1
Adrian Sutil 250/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 250/1

The best value bet there has to be Nick Heidfeld. Nick Heidfeld is always extremely good in race conditions. His form in Melbourne has also been good in the last couple of seasons. He finished 2nd last season, and finished 4th in 2007.

And as I explained in the pole position section, I think BMW Sauber will show more pace in Melbourne than they showed in testing. I think Heidfeld will be very strong in 2009, and no reason why it can’t start with a bang here.

The Toyotas again have very long odds despite the fact that on the long runs the Toyotas have been quick and consistent in this year’s tests. They look to be one of the front runners.

Either Toyota driver stands a chance of winning the race. Their only possible disadvantage is some of the cars behind them will be using the KERs system. If I were to pick one of the drivers, I would go for Trulli. If he can start at the front, then he has a good chance of challenging for victory.

Brawn GP will probably be the team to beat in the race though. The last laps of their long runs in testing looked particularly strong in comparison to the others. At 6-1, Barrichello isn’t a bad bet at all. Over the long runs in testing, he has been just as strong as Jenson, if not stronger. He has a great chance of winning the race.

 

Podium Finish

Jenson Button 4/6
Kimi Raikkonen EVS
Rubens Barrichello 5/4
Fernando Alonso 5/4
Felipe Massa 5/4
Robert Kubica 13/8
Lewis Hamilton 13/8
Sebastien Vettel 5/1
Nick Heidfeld 6/1
Jarno Trulli 8/1
Timo Glock 8/1
Heikki Kovalainen 8/1
Mark Webber 10/1
Nico Rosberg 10/1
Nelson Piquet Jr 16/1
Kazuki Nakajima 20/1
Sebastien Bourdais 33/1
Sebastien Buemi 40/1
Giancarlo Fisichella 50/1
Adrian Sutil 50/1

Again good odds on the Toyota drivers. Toyota should be strong in Melbourne, and even if they don’t win the race they has to be a great chance of them finishing on the podium.

As a rank outsider, Bourdais wouldn’t be a bad bet. The Australian GP can be a crazy race sometimes and Bourdais could take advantage of that. There is always at least one shock result in Melbourne.

He nearly finished in 4th last season, but reliability let him down. I think the F1 2009 spec cars will suit him far better, and he will be one of the stars of the season.

Nico Rosberg finished on the podium in Melbourne last season, and in the last test in Jerez the Williams looked quite quick. He is another who could spring a surprise in Melbourne.

 

My top betting tip for the race weekend

My best value bet this weekend is Jarno Trulli for pole position. The odds are great at 25/1, and there is genuine chance of it happening. Even if the Toyota isn’t ultimately the quickest car, Jarno Trulli is so good over a single lap that he can make the difference, and Toyota have often gone aggressive in qualifying.

Constructors Championship

Ferrari 11/10 
McLaren 7/2 
BMW 4/1 
Brawn GP (Formally Honda) 4/1 
Renault 12/1 
Red Bull Racing 20/1 
Toyota 33/1 
Williams 66/1 
Toro Rosso 125/1 
Force India 200/1 

BMW Sauber are a very good bet. Last season showed that they are very consistent, and don’t make many mistakes. On the other hand McLaren and Ferrari made many errors in 2008.

If they can make another step forward in terms of pace and they can maintain their other strengths, then are in a brilliant position to challenge for the constructors championship.

Toyota again are at very long odds and worth a punt in my opinion. The question mark will be whether they can maintain good pace throughout the season.

 

Driver’s championship

Kimi Raikkonen 4/1 
Fernando Alonso 9/2 
Jenson Button 9/2 
Lewis Hamilton 9/2 
Felipe Massa 5/1 
Robert Kubica 11/2 
Rubens Barrichello 12/1 
Sebastian Vettel 16/1 
Nick Heidfeld 25/1 
Heikki Kovalainen 40/1 
Mark Webber 66/1 
Jarno Trulli 66/1 
Timo Glock 66/1 
Nico Rosberg 80/1 
Nelson Piquet Jnr 100/1 
Kazuki Nakajima 125/1 
Sebastien Buemi 200/1 
Sebastien Bourdais 200/1 
Giancarlo Fisichella 250/1 
Adrian Sutil 250/1 

Over the course of the full season Kimi Raikkonen and Robert Kubica are the two men to consider betting on. As I have explained elsewhere, I think the Raikkonen magic will return this season, as I think the new spec F1 cars will suit him. Ferrari looks to have created another car that will allow their drivers to challenge for the title.

Kubica is very consistent, doesn’t make many errors, and doesn’t crack under pressure. He has the abilities to win the championship. If the car is quick, then he will definitely be there.

If you are looking for outsiders again I point you in the direction of the Toyota drivers both at 66/1.

If Brawn GP can maintain their pace throughout the season, then Barrichello is good value at 12-1.

If you decide to bet on this weekend’s race or the championship then good luck. But remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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March 24, 2009 - Posted by | Main Features

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